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Mathematics and Economics or Black Magic and Alchemy?
Economic data is complex, not reliable for causation. Economists should heed Romer’s Mathiness warnings and Keynes, Friedman on statistical alchemy.
Jun 1
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Warwick Lightfoot
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Mathematics and Economics or Black Magic and Alchemy?
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US Capital Account and International Finance
US economy has it all: modern productive services, science, and technology, capacity to mobilise the savings of the world to finance its investment, and…
May 17
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Warwick Lightfoot
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US Capital Account and International Finance
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Trump Administration’s Tariff Policy and the case for Unilateral Free Trade
Countries should embrace Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage, open markets, remove tariffs and impediments to trade, give effect to their self interest…
May 6
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Warwick Lightfoot
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Trump Administration’s Tariff Policy and the case for Unilateral Free Trade
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Industrial Revolution, inventing Political Economy, relative 20th century British economic decline and the creation of a modern…
It made Victorian Britain egregiously rich, but its costs stimulated a political antithesis that provoked a generation of socialist policies and a…
Apr 14
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Industrial Revolution, inventing Political Economy, relative 20th century British economic decline and the creation of a modern post-industrial economy
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UK’s Spring Economic Statement focuses on Redundant Fiscal Rules, Neglecting falling Productivity, Profits, the falling Rate of Return on…
UK has supply-side problems arising from high public spending, taxation and labour market regulation that deliver weak productivity and falling profits
Mar 31
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Warwick Lightfoot
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UK’s Spring Economic Statement focuses on Redundant Fiscal Rules, Neglecting falling Productivity, Profits, the falling Rate of Return on Capital and Structural Problems from higher Public Spending
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Kaput: German and European Economic Institutions set up for economic success sixty years ago are now in a Structural Slump
Germany’s economic miracle ended years ago, Germany and Europe’s Mercantilism, Rigid Fiscal Rules and resistance to technology need to go
Mar 23
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Kaput: German and European Economic Institutions set up for economic success sixty years ago are now in a Structural Slump
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Modern India: A Great Power, a rapidly expanding economy that hosts the world’s third largest equity market
Sovereign Socialist Republic of India, more powerful than the Mughal Empire possessing an economy with dynamism to match.
Mar 12
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Modern India: A Great Power, a rapidly expanding economy that hosts the world’s third largest equity market
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Challenge of over expanded public sectors: in the UK, Europe and North America
Elevated public expenditure crowding out private sector growth, is a problem in advanced OECD economies, the UK offers an egregious example, the EU…
Jan 29
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Challenge of over expanded public sectors: in the UK, Europe and North America
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Labour’s share of national income rises in the UK, while profitability falls
Unlike other economies wages as a share of GDP have risen in the UK since the mid-1990s, while profits have fallen, reflecting a flexible labour market…
Nov 29, 2024
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Warwick Lightfoot
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Labour’s share of national income rises in the UK, while profitability falls
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What should financial markets make of a second Trump administration: return to President Ronald Reagan’s War Keynesianism?
Economic modelling of President Trump's tariffs as exercises in hyperbole, big geopolitical issue is rearmament led by US, financed by debt, with…
Nov 22, 2024
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Warwick Lightfoot
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What should financial markets make of a second Trump administration: return to President Ronald Reagan’s War Keynesianism?
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As the UK Labour Market Becomes Less Flexible and Efficient, is the Minimum Wage Lowering Productivity Growth?
UK labour market is becoming more regulated, minimum wage regulation is compress pay differentials and a Manhattan Skyline of marginal tax rates damages…
Nov 7, 2024
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Warwick Lightfoot
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As the UK Labour Market Becomes Less Flexible and Efficient, is the Minimum Wage Lowering Productivity Growth?
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Rachel Reeves: huge Labour Budget, many measures, big increases in spending, taxation and borrowing. But nothing to show for it, in terms of…
The OBR’s economic forecast lowers its forecast for GDP growth, exemplifies crowding out effects arising from higher public spending and no change in…
Nov 6, 2024
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Rachel Reeves: huge Labour Budget, many measures, big increases in spending, taxation and borrowing. But nothing to show for it, in terms of higher economic growth
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